By Enoch 
Election Analysis by Global InfoAnalytics
In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential elections, Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has provided a detailed analysis of the voting patterns that led to Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s defeat. According to Dankwah, a significant shift in Muslim votes towards John Dramani Mahama played a crucial role in the election outcome.
Key Factors in the Election
The 2024 elections saw John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) secure a decisive victory over Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). Mahama garnered 6,328,397 votes, representing 56.55% of the valid votes cast, while Bawumia received 4,657,304 votes, or 41.61%. This result highlighted several underlying issues within the NPP’s campaign strategy and voter base.
Muslim Voter Shift
One of the most notable observations made by Dankwah was the shift in Muslim votes. Traditionally, Bawumia, being a devout Muslim, had strong support within the Muslim community. However, this election saw a significant portion of Muslim voters turning towards Mahama. Dankwah attributed this shift to several factors, including Bawumia’s campaign strategies and his outreach to other religious groups.
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Campaign Strategies and Religious Outreach
During his campaign, Bawumia made several high-profile visits to Christian churches and traditional shrines. While these visits were intended to broaden his appeal, they may have alienated his core Muslim supporters. Ghanaian actor Kwaku Manu suggested that these actions were perceived as a betrayal by some Muslim voters, leading them to shift their support to Mahama. This strategic misstep, according to Manu, contributed significantly to Bawumia’s loss.
Disgruntled NPP Supporters
Dankwah’s analysis also highlighted the dissatisfaction among NPP supporters. A significant number of disgruntled NPP supporters chose not to vote, further weakening Bawumia’s position. According to a poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, only 89% of the NPP’s base backed Bawumia, compared to 96% of NDC supporters who stood firmly behind Mahama. This lack of support from within his own party was a critical factor in the election results.
Impact of Floating Voters
Floating voters, who do not have strong party affiliations, also played a crucial role in the election. Dankwah noted that 54% of undecided voters leaned towards Mahama, while only 21% supported Bawumia. This significant difference in support among floating voters further tilted the scales in Mahama’s favor.
Regional and Demographic Differences
The election results also revealed regional and demographic differences in voter support. Mahama led Bawumia in key swing regions such as Accra, Western, and Central, securing 54% of the vote compared to Bawumia’s 34%. Additionally, Mahama’s support among first-time voters and older voters was notably higher than Bawumia’s, indicating a broader appeal across different age groups.
Looking Ahead
As the political landscape in Ghana continues to evolve, the lessons learned from the 2024 elections will be essential for future campaigns. Political parties will need to carefully consider their strategies and outreach efforts to ensure they resonate with their core supporters while also appealing to a broader electorate. The shift in Muslim votes and the role of floating voters highlight the importance of understanding and addressing the diverse needs and concerns of the electorate.
The Role of Media and Public Perception
The media played a significant role in shaping public perception during the 2024 elections. Coverage of campaign events, candidate visits, and voter reactions influenced how the public viewed the candidates. Bawumia’s visits to Christian churches and traditional shrines were widely covered, and the media’s portrayal of these events may have contributed to the perception of his campaign among Muslim voters. Moving forward, candidates will need to be mindful of how their actions are perceived and reported by the media.
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Final Thoughts
The 2024 presidential elections in Ghana were a testament to the dynamic and evolving nature of the country’s political landscape. The insights provided by Mussa Dankwah and Global InfoAnalytics offer a deeper understanding of the factors that influenced the election outcome. As Ghana prepares for future elections, these lessons will be invaluable for political parties, candidates, and voters alike. The importance of strategic campaign decisions, voter outreach, and understanding the diverse needs of the electorate cannot be overstated.
