On Thursday, May 16, 2019, the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicted victory for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the 2020 elections.
“The 2016 legislative election was won by the NPP; and the campaign was dominated by the faltering economy, which many Ghanaians still associate with Mr Mahama.
“The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that it will be difficult for the NDC under Mr Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy, especially as the country’s growth outlook is fairly strong,” EIU stated in its report.
The opposition NDC has since rejected the report as according to them, Ghanaians are the best judges.
GhanaNewsPage.Com takes a look at predictions made by the EIU about Ghana’s elections since 2008.
In 2016, the EIU stated in its country report that it expected the NPP to emerge victorious as Ghana headed to the polls in the crucial Presidential and Parliamentary elections.
The EIU stated in its report to investors in November 28, 2016 that ‘our forecast of a close election result (and some associated unrest) remains in place. We also continue to predict an NPP victory as being the most likely outcome.”
The NPP won the elections by a huge margin. Then candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo polled close to 54% of valid votes cast as against then President John Mahama’s 44.4%.
In the run up to the 2012 elections, the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit released a report forecasting that the ‘elections will be extremely close’ with John Mahama remaining ‘arguably the slight favourite.’
The EIU’s report read: “A number of recent events have bolstered the ruling NDC’s prospects ahead of the December elections. We continue to forecast that the elections will be extremely close, but the NDC is arguably becoming the slight favourite,” the report stated.
Mr. Mahama eventually emerged winner of the polls with about 50.7 percent of the valid votes cast with the Mr. Akufo-Addo following closely with 47.74 percent. The result of that election was unsuccessfully contested by the opposition party at the Supreme Court.
In the 2008 elections, the EIU predicted, ‘There is a danger that the open campaigning by so many NPP figures will appear as an undignified scramble for power and may alienate the electorate.’
‘Overall, we expect the 2008 vote to be reasonably close.’
The late John Mills won that election at a run-off overturning a first round deficit, ushering the NDC to power after eight years in opposition.
Source: Ghana | GhanaNewsPage.Com